For the last fifteen years or so, many people have been predicting what the future of our industry holds. Many people got it right (ie, Jeff Harbaugh). However, many others either:
- Did not listen,
- Did not understand, or
- Did not act in time.
The Industry was warned, and it had more than ample time to react to the coming realities. For the most part, it didn't.
Here's a quick, rapid-fire list of trends that I'm seeing today, and where they're going tomorrow:
More Industry Consolidation
Just like the recent Element/Plan B and Black Label/Blitz deals, I fully expect to see ever more consolidation of brands in the industry, until we're left with either a "Big Five" (as we had, in the '80s)... or, even more likely, a "Big Three", reminiscent of our auto industry. Like General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, our new "Big Three" will house not just dozens of individual "brands"... but, more than likely, hundreds. As there apparently has to be a unique and distinctive "brand" for every single conceivable "flavor" of skater on the whole fucking planet. As a result: Brands will get ever smaller, while their "umbrella" companies will get ever larger, as they continue to break down whole demographics of skaters in to smaller and smaller, distinctive little chunks, and try their damnedest to offer "something for everyone".
This consolidation is doing these things:
- It's further "commoditizing" skateboarding, as product differentiation is not taking a few steps backward [again, at least among the 'street' brands]. Just as we were starting to make some headway on that front, too...
- On the other hand: It's simplifying and streamlining the supply chain,
- Reducing overheads via reductions in warehousing, staffing, and support costs,
- Saving individual brands money, which makes them
- A bit more viable into the near-term, if not long-term, future.
So: Who's next to merge? Black Box and Tum Yeto? That would make sense, as Jamie Thomas and Tod Swank (and Ed Templeton) go way back. Deluxe and Street Corner? Wouldn't it be funny if Dwindle and the Crailtap brands (Girl and Chocolate) got back together, after all these years?! Maybe Stereo will come back too, as Jason Lee and Chris "Dune" Pastras both started their careers as World Industries teamriders...
In any rate, you can see the trends reversing, hard: In the '90s, everyone splintered away, to become the captains of their own ships. Today, it's the exact opposite: Mutual Support and Sustainability is the key-phrase of today.
Of course, there will always be The Independents. And, there are zillions of these, creeping up from the woodwork. These are local-to-regional brands that probably do the most to promote skateboarding at the grass-roots level. However, these brands will increasingly come under fire to keep up with the big boys. The problems of The Independents?:
- Not enough mojo to command hefty retail prices (Because, noone knows who the fuck you are, and even fewer really care);
- They still don't have MSRP/MAP pricing structures (because they're skaters/slackers first, and businessmen second... if, at all...);
- Their wholesale prices are entirely out of whack with the realistic retails they'll fetch, making them either instant loss-leaders... or low-volume, low-margin items... with the retailers;
- They have little to no access to these "new technologies" creeping up everywhere, so these guys are still squatting in an [increasingly obsolete] 7-Ply world;
- And, their overall industry inexperience generally conspires to keep them kinda clueless, and ten steps behind the pack, at every turn.
So long as the retailers are generally conservative, and un-reasonably hesitant to embrace anything "new", "now", or "tomorrow"... these guys will still have a fighting chance. But, not much of one.
The Independent Distributor Is In A Quandary...
The main problem with our industry, is that it's a 2010 industry, still living by 1970's paradigms. Back in those days of rotary phones, 8-tracks, Ford Pintos, disco fever, afro picks, and bell-bottomed polyester pants, we actually needed a strong, independent distributor paradigm to help "grow" and supply the industry.
Today? Well: We don't. Point blank.
As the industry consolidates, the Independent Distributor is going to find himself more and more out of a job, as the Brand Umbrellas will be doing their jobs for them. The industry, in short, will "streamline" in much the same way that most other industries did in the '80s and the '90s. We're only 10-20 years behind the curve, and that goes a long way to showing how smart we really are, and how effective our "leadership" really is.
So: All you shops that are today buying through AWH, Eastern, and South Shore? Start opening up your direct accounts today, so you'll be ahead of the curve tomorrow...
The Core Retailer Is Somewhere Between Dying, and Dead
As time goes on, I am becoming ever more convinced that The Core Retailers are becoming The Agents Of Their Own Demise.
There's so many problems here, I don't really know where to start. It seems to me that, in the future, the successful retailers will be almost exactly 50% "heart and soul"... and, 50% ruthless, cold, calculating, and opportunistic money-making machines. They will both re-invest in skateboarding, and profit wildly from it.
Too much of either, and your shop is either Dead By Standing Too Hard On Principle, or sucking ass because you're a greedy corporate empire that doesn't stand for shit, or do anything to help. The former? The shop just up the street from my house. The latter? Zumiez. The two are at completely opposite ends of a spectrum. The problem is, I don't have a damned bit of faith in either of them...
"Balance", as with so many other things in this world, will be the key to The Future Successful Retailer. They will occupy the exact middle of the spectrum that I just outlined above.
The successful skateshop of tomorrow is going to move fast, and think even faster. The rapidly advancing Global Economy that we're living in is going to mandate knowing more, learning quicker, and executing swiftly. Just because:
- If you're not on your A-Game, then you're almost certainly competing against someone that is.
And:
- Your customers probably won't stand for second-best, in any rate.
I tried to make a shop owner aware of these new, cold realities, just last week. In turn: I got screamed at for 5 hours, ridiculed, slandered, accused of a laundry-list of bullshit... and ultimately, banned from the shop. I guess that's what happens when you're the messenger, and some other dude in in full denial mode. Problem is, I don't have time for this. But, the even bigger problem, is: As an actual shop owner?! Neither does he...
The biggest problem is that, you can give a skate shop all the tools in the world that they need, to succeed. But, what if they can't tell their ass from their elbow in the first place?! Or, a screwdriver from a hammer?! Having the tools to succeed, is one thing. Knowing how to use them in a manner that works, and that gets results, is something else entirely.
Also: The skateshop of tomorrow won't just appeal to one "type" of skater. They will appeal to all types of skaters. In order to rake in the broadest demographic/customer base possible. In order to survive.
Let's face facts: The street-only skateshop is dead. Unless you're lucky enough to have a huge street-market at your doorstep, you will ultimately be diversifying. That means: No more appealing to "just" white, 13-18 year old, suburban, middle-class males. If that's your plan, you might as well shut your doors, and retire today, because you're gonna be finished sooner or later, anyway.
Nope: Your "future" market will be little kids, old-schoolers, females, twenty-somethings, thirty-somethings, forty-somethings, fifty-somethings, empty-nesters, asians, hispanics, college kids, PhD's..... so, you'd better figure your ass out mighty quick, and make sure that your shop's got something for everyone, buddy. If not? You're losing sales, every day, to someone else. That's cash out of your pocket! That's also one less meal on your table.
On the other hand: Some shop owners apparently just don't give a toss about money, or eating. That's cool. See ya in the lunch line, pal.
Growing The Sport
Personally, I think that everyone in the world should skate. I really do. I mean, it's fucking fun, it's great for staying in shape, you can do it alone (my personal preference), or with mobs of heads... it's pretty much the pinnacle of "the ultimate freedom"... and, no, it's not particularly expensive... so, yeah. Skateboarding Fucking Rocks. If more people were smarter and had half a clue, then surely, more people would be doing it.
So, you tell me: What's your shop doing, to promote this idea? Throwing a "street" or "best trick" contest won't cut it. Besides: Contests are for "winners" and "losers". So, let's get off that jock-strap bandwagon straightaway...
How about, just getting people together, to skate together, for the fun of it?! Outreach programs. Bar-B-Ques. Educational seminars. Partnering up with Jenny Craig and AARP. Preschool programs. How much of America, right now, is obese? How much of America likes joining a gym, and running in circles while watching Lifetime For Women...?! How much better would it be, if we could get them skateboarding, instead?! See, my whole "problem" is that, I'm not afraid to think "outside the box", so to speak. Indeed, if "the box" is say, downtown Indianapolis? Then, I'm happy thinking something more like The Vatican, or the Trans-Siberian Railroad. That's how far out of the box that I like to be. And I ain't apologizing for jack shit, either.
I had a shop owner accuse me this week of "selling out", because I think that skateshops-that-sell-something-else are kinda cool, and he thought they were "heartless", "gay", and "stupid". Well, everyone's entitled to their own assholes, but I think they're really doing skateboarding a huge service. Why?! Because: They generate hordes of non-skater foot traffic, and introduce those folks to skateboarding. Sometimes, for the very first time. And, usually: Far more accurately than the "american mainstream propagandist media" does. But, what the fuck do I know?! I'm just some heartless skater that doesn't "get it". Kick My Ass.
The Consumer Always Knows Best
Problem is, as these shops are dicking away valuable time arguing over which butt-buddy is "core-er" than somebody else's butt-buddy, The Consumers are happily sizing everyone up, and buying the skateboards that they want, wherever they're actually in stock, and wherever they're getting the best service, and/or the least headaches.
Here's a startling fact: As vocal of a supporter that I am of "the core retailer", the fact remains that I haven't actually shopped at (read: bought anything from) one in a couple of years now.
So: Why is that?! Well, simply put, it's just a major pain in the goddamned ass. First off, I usually have to educate the fucking dudes about what it is exactly that I'm looking for, right out of the gate.
Now, let's be clear here: A good shop owner should be educating me about what's the newest, latest, and greatest. Not: The Other Fucking Way Around.
Then, we get into shit like, is this dude actually gonna pick up a phone, and even order my shit...? Is he ever gonna call my ass back, if/when it comes in...? I once had a local shop owner actually argue with me, because he claimed that the "Abec 11" wheels that I wanted didn't exist. Because, "Abec" refers to bearings, not wheels. And, the rating only goes up to 9, not 11. Well, well! Being the kind of guy that has Chris Chaput's cell, office, and warehouse number in my cellphone... I had half a mind to call 'ol Chappy right then and there, and inform him that he apparently doesn't exist. But, that would have taken work, and I'm way lazier than the next jackass... so, I didn't. I just resolved never to shop at that shop, ever again. And, to this day: I haven't.
So, where am I shopping?! Just like your typical customer, where I get the best know-how and service. That's Mike Hirsch at SoCal Skateshop. It's funny: For an internet-only "storefront" [at the time; they now have an actual, b&m location...], Mike sure as hell knows his shit. When I ask him for Abec 11 Flywheels, he's smart enough to ask me in which duro and size...? He always has the coolest shit in stock (until he runs out), the service is outstanding, and Mike's the kinda bloke that'll think of shit that even I forget. And, at the end of it all, it shows up at my door, immaculately packed, in just a couple days. Never a mistake, never a hassle. Beautiful...!
Just as in the past, The Industry has two solid options on the table. They can stick their heads in the sand, deny reality, take a long pull off the flask/bong, and keep on doing the same shit they've always done. Or: They can evolve, adapt, listen, learn, visualize, plan, and act.
If you ask me, I've got a couple grand on the beer-bong route. I've been in this industry an awful long time now. So, I sure as hell know the safe bet, when I see it.
